India will suffer the most important gross domestic product (GDP) loss of 11 percent thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, S&P said.
India’s GDP loss is almost double that of Latin America and Africa and 5 to six times of the remainder of & Asia, S&P added.
S&P Global cut its emerging market growth forecasts on Monday, predicting a 4.7 percent slump on the average this year thanks to the coronavirus and warned that each one country would be left with permanent scars too.
The firm said the downward GDP revisions mostly reflected the general worsening pandemic for several emerging markets and a bigger hit to foreign trade compared to its last set of expectations in April that predicted a 1.8 percent contraction.
It added that there would permanent output losses from the pandemic for all emerging markets, with the gap relative to pre-COVID GDP path as large as 11 percent in India, 6 percent-7 percent in most of Latin America and South Africa, 3 percent-4 percent in most of Emerging Europe, and a couple of percent in Malaysia and Indonesia.
“We project the typical EM GDP (excluding China) to say no by 4.7 percent this year and to grow 5.9 percent in 2021. Risks remain totally on the downside and tied to pandemic developments,” S&P said.
(with inputs from MoneyControl)